A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
