A mere eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was much more joyous. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. History, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
His opener originated from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward now would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
